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2017 Power Rankings-Week 11
Introduction Did I get a little too carried away with today's power rankings? Maybe. Sue me. But I am a very happy Commish today. And I'll tell you why. For the second year in a row we have four 5-5 teams (last year we had five) fighting for three playoff spots. We have a 4-6 team that is as much in this race as anyone. And we have bye spots still very up for grabs. No matter how the first month of the season goes, this always comes down to the last couple of weeks. And that makes Commish me very happy. Manager me is terrified, don't get me wrong. But Commish me, very happy. Very pleased with what I'm seeing here. Speaking of being Commish of the best league ever... Mirror League Update When we last spoke of the Mirror League I was striking a peace treaty with them. They felt that we were equals and I was willing to grant them this delusion for the sake of peace. Well, Nate was contacted by the manager of the Mirror League twitter account: Turns out there was trouble. For those keeping count this is the second Commish to step down in 2017. The first resigned after someone banged his sister. And now Bailey Addie steps down. It seems like some internal conflict tore apart their league from the inside out. Commish toppled, citizens flocking across borders trying to get into other leagues like Syrian refugees but with higher waiver priority. We do not open our borders to entities from the Dark Universe. That's not how this works. Especially because RIPDab manager Nate Follett brought up a great point: this could be a trap. Everyone keep a close watch on the borderlands and the internet and do not let your guard down for a moment. Now let's get to this week's big controversy... Is Paddock 9 Padding Stats? Does Paddock 9's all-time roster moves record need an asterisk? I did a quick audit of all his transaction (consider it a random screening) and found this: Yeah, that's exactly what it looks like. Pharoh Cooper, member of Paddock 9 for less than one minute. A quick little add, then drop, and another transaction for the record books. Paddock 9 is the Barry Bonds of roster moves, and now here we have our steroid scandal. All of a sudden this tweet makes a lot more sense: Maybe someone is afraid that if they are monitored too closely their actions would come under investigation. I'm not saying they need an asterisk but I'm also not going to not say that, you know? Also, the next time you're going to add/drop someone, maybe add/drop like 40 people in a row just so you can get the record, you know? I guess we've entered the add/drop era of fantasy football. Absolute Standings Absolute Standings is simply this: what if instead of matchups, the top five teams got a W every week and the bottom five took an L? If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today: Sweet Dee vs. TB I've had this one cooking for a few weeks and I've been waiting for Dee to hit 25 wins but at this rate it may never happen. The Bust Zone What a fucking pain in the ass this Jordy Nelson guy has become. Players currently outscoring Jordy: LeGarrette Blount, Marquise Goodwin, Isaiah Crowell, Travis Benjamin. Three of those players are free agents! BUST. Rookie Rundown This is the year of the rookie back. Let's look at how some of these young studs are performing in 2017. Guys, I have to say something. I think Mixon is a bust. Now, I know what you're thinking, I say this literally every week and no one listens to me. But the fact that Dalvin Cook is still threatening to outscore you and Cook has been out since week four? NOT GOOD. Stat Chat LOC * Ma ma momma's win in week ten was the first consecutive win by the team since 2015. * The Shotti Bunch reaches 50 Regular season win and in doing so they pass RIPDab for 2nd most all-time. * Papa has eclipsed 200 points 15 times between 2015-2017 and 5 of those games were against Duck Punchers. NFL * LeSean McCoy (TSB) has just 20 carries over the last two games after averaging 20 carries per game the first eight weeks of the season. * Jamaal Williams (P9) has just 56 career carries. None have gone longer than seven yards. * Leonard Fournette (GBM) has played under 55% of snaps in three of his last five games. * Mark Ingram (RIP) has finished outside the top ten RBs just once since Peterson was traded. * Le'Veon Bell (MMMS) is on pace to handle 462 touches, second most all time. Paddock 9 week 1 week 10 comparison I think that first chart is self-explanatory. Here is where things get really interesting. Here is Paddock 9's week one roster again. This time, the comparison shows what Paddock 9's week ten score would be if he had made ZERO roster moves the entire season. So if he had kept his entire week one roster, here is how it would look: Let's put this into better perspective: On the left we have Paddock 9's week ten results after 57 roster moves (his actual week ten results). On the right we have Paddock 9's week ten results if he had made zero roster moves. Now close your eyes and imagine that P9 had just made the essential changes (i.e. drops the kicker who was booted from the league, swaps out his IR guys, etc). He might actually still be good! Best Win/Loss Records Through 100 Combined Games Updated 11/14/17 Even with the loss, Duck Punchers finishes with the best first-100 games of any Original Seven team. Shotti will look to topple that record next season. A Family Affair This week we saw something as rare as a hillbilly with a college degree. Both DiGennaro Boys won on the same week for just the 13th time in the seven-year history of the league. Below is a chart showing how many times this has happened, per season. Papa and GBM were also the only two teams to break the 200-point mark. This is the first time only two teams broke 200 in a single week since Papa and Shotti did it in week 11 of 2015. Trade Tracker Trade tracker is keeping us apprised of the ramifications of trade Wednesday, as well as the week 8 and 12 trades for GBM. In the first and third columns, the points scored by traded players in starting lineups (if they are benched, those points are not tallied). Starts: *Wentz: 2 *Crowder: 1 **Crowder has scored 32.60 and 13.88 points on the bench in the two games he has played somce weel 8. Starts: *Thompson: 3 *Brady: 2 It is hard to track the implications of those two trades since they really worked together. Maybe next week I'll combine these two trade trackers. Starts: *McCaffrey: 2 *Abdullah: 2 *Morris: 1 Starts: * Elliot: 1 * Cooks: 1 * Olsen: 0 Starts *Miller: 2 *Snead: 0 *Juju: 1 *Duke: 1 Remaining Strength of Schedule Strength of schedule for the remaining three weeks of the regular season. The Duck Punchers, without Cooks and Olsen and Elliot, will have to go against the toughest remaining schedule and do some winning to have a chance at the bye, which just two weeks ago seemed like a lock. No one controls their own destiny moreso than Pain Train. Pain Train goes against all three 5-5 teams to finish the season. If they win out they are guaranteed 4th place, but could very well end up with a bye if they finish 8-5. JarJar, the weakest scoring team of 2017, has to feel good about going against 9th and 10th place to close the regular season. Playoffs?? Mathematically, everyone is still alive for the playoffs. Obviously, some teams are better off than others. Magic Number A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must win to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. NOTE: Due to the matchup between JarJar and Pain Train, The Shotti Bunch has clinched at least the 6-seed in the playoffs, despite Yahoo not recognizing that accomplishment. ^ - Means Team will Finish At or Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot. DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams. *- Indicates First Round Bye Elimination Number An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must lose to guarantee losing a given playoff spot. NOTE: For the most part, scoring was not taken into account. However, JarJar Stinks! trails The Shotti Bunch by 550.81 points. Therefore, even though theoretically JarJar could still win out and finish tied with TSB at 8-5, I have reasoned that there is a 0% chance of this occurring and thus have eliminated JJ from 1-seed contention. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot. MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games. *- Indicates first round bye Sweet Dee, I am sad to say, has very little chance of making the playoffs. It involves winning out and having two of the four 5-5 teams lose out, and even then she'll need to win the scoring tie-breaker. Week Eleven Scenarios Note: these scenarios take into account key matchups for weeks 12 & 13, which Yahoo does not do. These are more accurate. * The Shotti Bunch clinches a playoff spot with: ** A win, or ** A loss by JarJar Stinks! or Pain Train WOO WOO (playing each other), or ** A loss by Paddock 9, or ** A loss by Garoppoblow Me. * The Duck Punchers '''clinches a playoff spot with: ** A '''win, or ** A loss by Pain Train WOO WOO and ''Garoppoblow Me (play each other week 12). * '''RIPDab '''clinches a playoff spot with: ** A '''win' and ''a loss by Pain Train WOO WOO. * '''ma ma momma said '''will be in a playoff position through 11 weeks with: ** A '''win 'and ''a '''loss' by JarJar Stinks! and a loss by Paddock 9 and Paddock 9 does not outscore Mama by more than 16.94 points. * Papa's Pussies will be eliminated with: ** A loss and a win by any three of the following four teams: Garoppoblow Me, JarJar Stinks!, Paddock 9, Pain Train WOO WOO. * Sweet Dee will be eliminated with: ** A loss, or ** A win by any three of the following four teams: Garoppoblow Me, JarJar Stinks!, Paddock 9, Pain Train WOO WOO. Power Rankings PT - Team record against teams currently in a playoff position. L3 - Record over the last three games. © - Clinched Playoff Berth (E) - Eliminated from Playoff Contention (B) - Clinched a First Round Bye ---- 1(1). The Shotti Bunch (8-2) © *PT: 4-2 *L3: 2-1 The team with the longest active win streak in the league drops a measely 152.33 against The Shotti Bunch while Shotti is in the midst of a bye race? Shotti could have made a great career for himself in a battery with Sandy Koufax because Koufax threw the best curveball in the game and all Shotti does is catch breaks. ---- 2(2). The Duck Punchers (7-3) * PT: 3-1 * L3: 2-1 The Duck Punchers lost Brandin Cooks, and in the process lost the league lead in receptions to Papa's Pussies, their kryptonite. Giving up Olsen and Cooks for a runningback seems to be in direct contrast to their High Flying Offense philosophy, but with a game against an ailing Paddock 9 in week 11 they seemed primed to clinch a playoff spot by the time dessert hits the table on Thanksgiving. ---- 3(4). Garoppoblow Me (5-5) * PT: 4-1 * L3: 2-1 With 676.92 points, GBM is second in the league in scoring over the last three weeks (behind The Shotti Bunch at 685.89). Last week they managed the second highest single-game point total of 2017 with their 1st and 2nd round picks combining for 14.18 points. They have climbed back from the dead but they have a huge Jordy problem and they aren't clear of danger just yet. ---- 4(3). RIPDab (6-4) * PT: 3-3 * L3: 1-2 The Fantasy Gods did not even try to hide their displeasure with RIP this week. Clearly their comment in week three that ma ma momma said was ma ma momma dead did not sit well with them, and the Fantasy Gods do not forget. They also knocked out Freeman for their pivotal game against the Commish, but losing Freeman may be a blessing in disguise. In the one game Coleman has started without Freeman (in 2015) all he did was go 110 yards on 18 carries. ---- 5(7). Pain Train WOO WOO (5-5) * PT: 1-4 * L3: 1-2 Late Monday night it was starting to look like Pain Train outsmarted himself out of a playoff spot. He had benched Seferian-Jenkins, even though his two mediocre performances in weeks 8 and 9 could easily be chalked up to matchups against tough defenses, in favor of Hunter Henry against the top rated defense in football. Then, he benched Devin Funchess, coming off a 5 catch 86 yard game against Atlanta, in favor of Kenyon Drake. Well, Drake took a huge 40+ run to the house to seal the victory against the all-but-eliminated Sweet Dee and all of a sudden Pain Train is barreling down the tracks towards the playoffs. Like I said earlier, no one is more in control of their destiny than Pain Train. ---- 6(8). ma ma momma said (4-6) * PT: 2-5 * L3: 2-1 That's right, momma in 6th. You read me correct. Now folks, I know we've talked a lot about the Zeke Elliot trade and how it was a master class in dumping dead weight. And this ranking is absolutely not because I think that trade moved momma from a mediocre team to an above average team. This is all about two teams currently above them in the standings being worse, and with three weeks left that might be all they need. They'll likely need to steal one or both games from TSB and GBM to close the season, but I get the feeling momma will not go quietly into that good night. ---- 7(5). Paddock 9 (5-5) * PT: 0-4 * L3: 1-2 Paddock 9 has been eating off his four game win streak from 9/12-10/09 for a while now. As always, P9 hit a rough patch around Halloween and has gone 1-4 in his last five games. Maybe because he was so hot for so long people think this team is playoff material. I got news for ya. It's not. Too many injuries for P9. More than any man can recover from. And I'm not trying to be a dick. I think P9 has managed the hell out of his team this year. Forget about all the roster moves, he has found ways to patch the leaking ship time and time again. The problem is then those patches break their ribs or injure an MCL or are named Jamaal Williams. P9 needs at least one game out of three or they are headed back to their ol' stompin' ground. ---- 8(10). Papa's Pussies (3-7) * PT: 2-5 * L3: 1-2 John Madden voice: "Now I kinda like what Papa's Pussies is doing here." Last week I dumped on Papa for their trade with P9. While I still think McCaffrey is far more valuable, all of a sudden Abdullah and Morris aren't the worst two RBs to have rostered. While it may be too late to make a playoff run (3-0 seems like a tall task), games against three teams in contention makes for a decent slate of spoiler games. ---- 9(6). JarJar Stinks! (5-5) * PT: 4-4 * L3: 2-1 Good news, you're tied for fourth! Bad news, you're actually in 7th. JarJar will never win a tiebreaker; he trails 10th place Sweet Dee by 143.54 points. But hey, it was fun while it lasted, right? After a stellar win streak, October JarJar turned back into September JarJar and failed to meet their projection...which was only 155.12. I mostly think this loss can be chalked up to the fantasy gods being displeased with Matt Forte in the starting lineup. This has not been a problem for years now, but people forget that the Fantasy Gods do NOT tolerate people failing to set their lineup. ---- 10(9). Sweet Dee (2-8) * 1-7 * L3: 1-2 Dee really has me wondering just how many times she has benched a win and what difference it would make in our perception of her team. She has to have left at least 10 wins on her bench over the years. I unfortunately cannot find out for sure but it makes you think. Anyway, Dee is going to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. Sad! Matchups of the Week There is not a single meaningless game this week, as all of them will shape the December playoff picture. We have seen so many upsets in recent weeks (last week alone there were three), anyone can iwn on any given Sunday once again. LOC is so back. The Undercards The Shotti Bunch (214.60) vs. Papa's Pussies (191.76) Shotti's Gauntlet of the Gods continues against the 2011 Glory Bowl I Champion. Shotti is 7-1 against Papa but 1-1 in their last two games. Cousins and KC Def (Papa) both have favorable matchups. Shotti needs to hope for more production out of Melvin Gordon and LeSean McCoy, the latter of which has a new QB handing him the rock. ---- The Duck Punchers (201.15) vs. Paddock 9 (185.69) A 1.12 point victory against Paddock 9 in their last meeting has altered the landscape of the standings drastically, because now another loss by Paddock 9 could push them right out of a playoff position. These two teams are tied 6-6, with Paddock 9 on a 4-1 stretch over the last three years. But P9 lost Will Filler (who, let's be honest, was a dead man walking before the injury) and now Josh Doctson is filling in as the WR3. Duck Punchers WR3? The fifth overall pick out of Western Michigan, Corey Davis. We'll see what he can do against Pittsburgh's vaunted defense on Thursday Night Football. ---- Pain Train WOO WOO (200.43) vs. JarJar Stinks! (173.13) Pretty cut and dry here. If JarJar loses, they are out of playoff contention (for now). If they win, they will be in a playoff spot through 11 weeks. But they have a steep hill to climb with no depth to speak of (Decker starting against Pitt tonight is one example). Pain Train, meanwhile, turned down Jared Goff and Philly D on multiple occasions and will try to punch his ticket with Big Ben and Detroit D. JarJar owns the series edge, 4-2. ---- Garoppoblow Me (227.80) vs. RIPDab (215.61) On paper this looks like the undisputed matchup of the week. Two high powered offenses going head to head with the winner getting 3rd place through 11 weeks. Brady, traded from GBM, against Thompson, traded from RIP. Two strong defenses. Both first round picks benched. The duo of Coleman and Sanu against the duo of Michael Thomas and Kamara. A win for GBM and they can finally take a breath after being on the edge of elimination for weeks. A win for RIPDab and they get to play for a shot at the bye against Duck Punchers in week 12. The Main Event Sweet Dee (206.44) vs. ma ma momma said (201.47) * 2017 Records ** ma ma momma said: 4-6 (8th) ** Sweet Dee: 2-8 (10th) * Head-to-Head Wins ** MMMS: 6 ** DEE: 2 * Key Players on Bye (MMMS) ** T.Y. Hilton ** Greg Olsen * Key Players on Bye (DEE) ** Carlos Hyde ** Frank Gore * Key Injuries (MMMS) ** Allen Hurns (Doubtful) ** Jameis Winston (Out) * Key Injuries (DEE) ** Marqise Lee (Questionable) ** Dez Bryant (Questionable) * Players to Watch (MMMS) ** Jay Ajayi: Great first game in Philly a few weeks ago, and then the bye, so now we get to see what Ajayi is actually going to do for the Philly and momma offenses. ** Denver Defense: This unit has been BAD. Not lowercase bad, uppercase BAD. They need to at least be lowercase good this week. ** Robert Woods: You have to imagine that the current production of Robert Woods is unsustainable, and Minnesota looks like a good matchup for him to drop off. Can he give momma what they need to keep their playoff hopes alive? * Players to Watch (DEE) ** Drew Brees: Game manager Brees. Ol' average fantasy day Drew. He absolutely has to go off against Washington for Dee to survive this week. ** Jimmy Graham: Jimmy against Atlanta is not a great one but he's scored double-digits every game since week three so can he keep it up? ** Damien Williams: People are taking note of these RB's over in Miami and at some point someone is going to get burned by one. This is not your ordinary 8 vs. 10 matchup. Yes, Sweet Dee is eliminated with just one more loss. But things are exciting in camp momma and the playoff race is a lot more interesting with them in the mix. Momma is one of two teams that has not lost in November and has not skipped a beat since losing Jameis Winston. Not only do they look better than Paddock 9 and JarJar Stinks! (both above them in the standings, but even Yahoo currently projects them to finish at 6-7 with the 6-seed. A win by momma takes an already muddied playoff picture and makes it even more muddled. A win by Sweet Dee and she gets to take momma down into the consolation tournament abyss with her.